Macro boosts SS futures market, which holds up well, while the weak fundamentals have not yet truly recovered [SMM Stainless Steel Futures Weekly Review]

According to SMM data, the most-traded SS contract showed a tendency to hold up well this week. As of 10:30 on July 18, the SS2509 contract was quoted at 12,740 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt WoW.

From a macro perspective, on July 12, the US announced a 30% tariff increase on products imported from Mexico and the EU, sparking strong opposition from trading partners and further exacerbating global trade uncertainties. Meanwhile, the 90-day grace period for US tariffs on China is drawing to a close, with market concerns over escalating trade frictions continuing to rise, which to some extent has dampened expectations for stainless steel export demand. From an economic data perspective, the US CPI rose 2.7% YoY in June, hitting a new high for the year, while core CPI rose 0.2% MoM. Although the data met market expectations, it dampened expectations for an interest rate cut in the short term. Domestically, macroeconomic data for H1 2025 has been released, with GDP up 5.3% YoY and fixed-asset investment up 2.8%. However, real estate investment fell 11.2% YoY, and the performance of traditional stainless steel demand sectors remains unfavorable.

From a fundamental perspective, the stainless steel spot market saw improved activity this week, with market inquiry enthusiasm rising. Production cuts by stainless steel mills have begun to show results, with social inventory of stainless steel declining during the week and stainless steel prices rising slightly. However, actual downstream terminal consumption has not fundamentally recovered, with current transactions heavily influenced by fluctuations in the SS futures market. Coupled with strong macro uncertainties, the sustainability of the market's short-term recovery remains under scrutiny.